June manufacturing PMI50.2 % higher than the critical value for four months
On July 1, the national bureau of statistics released June manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data. In June, according to data, manufacturing PMI is 50.2%, slightly higher than the critical point for 4 months in a row, expansion. Non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.8%, 0.6% higher than last month, the market demand, indicates that the manufacturing of overall stability, expansion pace picked up.
National bureau of statistics (NBS) services research center, said senior statistician Zhao Qinghe growth manufacturing PMI overall stable this month, production index is 52.9%, and the flat last month, the index in the second quarter of the overall level is higher than in the first quarter. In addition, the results showed that reflects the proportion of funds, the market demand to reduce enterprise increased, the difficulties in the production and operation of an enterprise has not been effective.
Everbright securities chief economist xu said high, with a sustained economic recovery in the developed countries and the appreciation of the renminbi pressure to slow, export possible stabilising picks up. At the same time, the steady growth of policies to promote real estate demand and infrastructure investment recovery, has yet to face to production, fewer funds pressure suppression investment still demand for manufacturing forming limit. Large and medium-sized enterprises in infrastructure construction to speed up power is steady growth policy environment, such as demand improved, promote the boom of the ascension.
Cic advisory macroeconomic researcher Bai Pengming said in an interview with "securities journal" reporter, PMI index and flat last month in June is mainly caused by a lack of power manufacturing enterprises in our country, such as weak market demand at home and abroad, but the overall increase in production smoothly. Main reason for the non-manufacturing index is higher than the critical point is, the rapid development of the third industry in our country, such as the Internet, finance, logistics, etc., it shows that China's economic structure transformation has produced results.
"Vulnerable is smooth, the boom of economy downward pressure is still there. Given the economy's downward pressure is still there, in the third quarter monetary policy will remain too loose, but the easy way to stimulate the real economy will be more liquidity." Xu said.
According to "securities daily" reporter understanding, on June 30, the bank of China issued "the third quarter of 2015 economic and financial outlook report" (hereinafter referred to as the "report"), the report argues that since the second quarter investment, consumption, exports and industrial production, such as the main economic indicators are continuing to decline, expected GDP growth at around 6.8%. Is expected in the third quarter GDP growth at around 7%, CPI rose 1.5%.
The report pointed out that in the second quarter GDP growth is lower than previously expected, mainly since the last official policy effect has not been fully revealed a series of steady growth, these policy include the new batch of project, cut interest rates fall, tax cuts JiangFei etc.
High at the same time, Mr. Xu said that the future will be more by PSL, local government debt exchange capacity, lower the standards of corporate-bond issuance and relaxation methods such as real estate development loan conditions, direct funds into the real economy. Along with the steady growth policies continue to overweight, demand side will drive the economy stabilises. Expected the second quarter GDP growth will be down to 6.9%, have rebounded to 7.0% in the third quarter.
According to "securities daily" reporter understanding, according to a report published by standard chartered bank, in the next few months the decision-making departments will maintain loose policy stance unchanged, or downgraded again by the end of the deposit reserve rate of 1%, and more directional policy to support the healthy development of the real economy.
Article source: securities daily